Chile Copper Supply Downgrade Again

Chile's state copper commission Cochilco has cut the country's 2026 copper production forecast by 2.6%, marking another sequential downward revision as mine operational issues persist. Chile accounts for roughly 25-27% of global copper supply, and repeated forecast cuts signal structural underperformance rather than a one-time weather or labor event. Against a backdrop of already-tight copper inventories and AI/electrification-driven demand growth, this supply shortfall is incrementally bullish for copper prices and US-listed copper producers and royalty names. The most direct US-listed beneficiary is Freeport-McMoRan, which has significant Chilean exposure.